An assay-based background projection for the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR using Monte Carlo Uncertainty Propagation

The background index (BI) is an important quantity to project and calculate the half-life sensitivity of neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) experiments. An analysis framework is presented to calculate the BI using the specific activities, masses, and simulated efficiencies of an experiments components as distributions. This Bayesian framework includes a unified approach to combine specific activities from assay. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is used to build a BI distribution from the specific activity, mass, and efficiency distributions. This method is applied to the Majorana Demonstrator, which deployed arrays of high-purity Ge detectors enriched in ⁷⁶Ge to search for 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽. The original assay-based projection is requantified in the new framework, using the as-built geometry of the Demonstrator and additional assay information. While 47% higher than the original projection, the resulting BI of [8.95±0.36]×10^-4cts/(keVkgyr) from the ²³²Th and ²³⁸U decay chains does not account for the higher-than-expected BI observed by the Demonstrator. This method enables us to demonstrate the statistical incompatibility between the Demonstrator's observed background and the assay results.